There are 3 stages of a bull-market.
We are currently in Stage 1, this is the stage where there are many doubters but the market keeps roaring ahead. Even though the fundamentals look bad and we have hundred reasons why the market should not go up, it goes up. It is not good to fight this trend. The ideal strategy is to buy break-outs because there many not be pullbacks to buy.
The second stage is where the majority are on board. We see sharp retracements during this stage and failed break-outs. The ideal way to trade is to buy on pullbacks. I usually like to buy the pullback to the 65 W MA in the S&P. For some reason the 65 W MA provides serious support.
Stage 3 is similar to Stage 1 when everyone is a bull. Everyone starts talking about the market and how they are making a killing. This is the time to start taking profits and tightening the stops.
Saturday, May 9, 2009
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