Here is to 2009

Happy New Year. I will be back in 2010.

Blast from the Past

I was looking at some of the things that I have written in the past and I found this post from 6/27/07. I sort of saw the crash coming in 08. Yeah, I admit that I'm blowing my own horn.....

"I would not touch Blackstone here. It is trading below it's IPO price now, so is Fortress that went public recently. In some weird way it might have signaled a top.

We are still in a major bull market so this market will go higher, but it pays to be patience and buy on a pullbacks rather than chase everything that is moving.

Another thing that I noticed is that the Commercials are net long, so if the market goes down here it will go down more than the previous reactions. In previous reactions, the market has been down mostly 6-8%, so my guess is about 13-15% from the high, we are already down about 3% from the time I suggested the market was going down.

If the market rebounds here and keeps on going up, we might see a crash like in 87. Before the crash in 87, the bonds were sinking, commercials were net long and investor sentiment was very high. I'd rather see a nice pullback now than a crash later. "

2009 Review

2009 ended up being pretty good. The first few months I was on the sideline and did not do much but I turned bullish in April and the timing was great. Everyone that I knew was bearish then and were sure that the world was coming to an end. When I turned bullish and told people to buy in April, there were 2 people that bought it but others were too scared. The best thing about this is that the model that I built was accurate in calling the top (in late 2007) and the bottom.

As I had mentioned earlier on one of my post that I am trying to start a business in Nepal. I have been fairly busy with that in the past 2 months and will be busy with that in the future too. I love trading but due to the new business I had to take money from my trading account and put it in savings because I need the money in the next few months as we move forward with this business. So this past month I just left enough money to trade small and took the rest out. I made 35.61% in December.

I have had few requests from people about trading their account too. In the past I did not want to go through the hassel but now the more I think about it I realize that this may work. This is a great way for me to make some extra money without risking a lot of my own money. There is going to be a charge for it, but if anyone is interested shoot me an email and we can discuss in detail.

Here is my Dec's results.

Trying to Breakout

As I had mentioned in my earlier post this market is trying to break-out to the upside. There was a decent selling yesterday but the buyers came in again. We saw the same thing today. ES made an intraday low during the regular hours but closed near the high. My other indicator has already broke-out to the upside, so I'd expect this move to continue higher.

December, so far has been the best month for me this year.

Meet up

As I mentioned to in my earlier post that I have been busy with other stuff and am unable to update this blog on a regular basis. I'm still trading futures intraday from the long side only and it has been going good.

Although I was expecting the market to correct 6-8%, this market has been showing some serious strength. Just a few % move down brings lots of buyers. We will probably see 1200 before any serious correction.

Just wanted to know if anyone here trades intraday? I'm assuming most of the people are swing traders. I have been thinking about meeting with some of you at ANA or something like that. Would you guys be interested? We can grab few beers and talk about markets?

11/12

I have been back for a while but have been really busy to update this blog. In addition to that MSN screener that I used to scan for stocks is no longer available. Currently, I am looking at few other businesses to start in Nepal and am busy working on the business plans.

Here is a simple strategy that should beat the market. We are in a bull market now and the best bet is to buy pullbacks. Wait for the S&P 500 to touch the 65W EMA and buy one of the indexes (SPY, DIA, QQQQ, IWM) using margin. Once S&P goes up by 80 points, sell some so that you are not using margin and hold the rest. Then you wait for another pullback. Your stop is 6% below your buy price.

Currently, S&P 65W EMA is at 1020.

Final Update

This is going to be my last post till November. I am going back home for a little over a month and will not be updating since I will not be watching the market. I need to change my style a bit. From now on I will not be trading for small profits. I was disappointed at myself because I was able to identify the beginning of the bull move but was unable to make the most of it. So from now on I will be trading futures intraday and will hold stocks for all of the move. In order to do that I will have to wait for the market to pull-back to my buy point and once it is there I will make the bet. There will probably be 1-2 such opportunities in a year but the pay-off should be huge.

Kicking Myself

Three investing books that influenced me a lot were; Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, How I trade for a living and How I made 2M dollars. One of the common theme in all those books were to stay with the major trend and ride the minor bumps on the way to make the big money. I should have listened to them. As many of you know I had bought ATPG when it was at 6 and sold it at 8ish...which is good but not great because it is trading at 13+ today. Similarly, I had STEC and FUQI too that I bought in the teens and sold for a profit. Once this market closes above 1020 on a monthly chart, I'll wait for a pullback, will buy stocks and hold those for a long-time. I'm done with this small profits.

9/1

I hope that you guys took some money off the table when you had a chance. Only a fool waits for the top price. We'll see few bounces here and there but the general market is pulling back to support. Once we get to 950-965 range in S&P, it may be a good idea to get in the market.

8/27

I am still expecting the market to decline here so I do not have any recommendations. Even if the market goes up from here it will come and re-test 1020. In few weeks I am going back to Nepal and will be back in November. I will not be able to post much till then.

Just watch for 1020 in S&P.

8/17

I did not post anything last week because I was expecting a correction and was not going to initiate any long positions. The selloff that I was expecting at 1020 seems to be underway. I expect it to get to 930-950 before buyers will come in. We could see intraday bounces on the way down but a sustained rally is not likely unless we test the support.

Friday's Update

The job numbers that came out this morning were better than expected and the market rallied on the news. S&P touched 1018 today which is very close to my target of 1020. If you used margin to buy stocks, it is very important to sell some here and take the profit. If you didn't use margin then sell the worst-performing stocks and take some cash off the table. We could go higer from here but even if we go higher the market will come and re-test 1020. My guess is that we will get to 940-950 and to 1100.

Just don't be too greedy and take what the market gives you.

Wednesday's Update

The market was able to close above 1000 few days ago and we are seeing some selling now. It should trade in the 980-1020 range for few days to weeks and we could see a minor correction after that. It is probably a good idea to take some money off the table if you bought anything on margin.

Once it gets down to 930-950, then it might be a good idea to use the margin again.

Closed above 1000

Wow..S&P finally managed to close above 1000 and did not sell into the last hour. I don't know how high this market will go but 1020 seems like a nice place for a pause. Even if we go above 1020, we will see a correction to 1020.

I turned bullish in April 2009, when everyone thought that the rally was a sucker's rally. I had projected the market to get to 960-880-1020. The first 2 did happen and we are getting closer to 1020 by the day.

Thursday's Update

I think we'll get over 1000 in S&P in few days. Bulls will try to close above that but the number that I'm looking at is 1020. We may see another correction after we get to 1020. I'll start taking some profits as we get past 1000. Let someone else have the last 2% and be the bagholder.

Even if we go past 1020, the market will correct and re-test 1020 which will provide you with another opportunity to go long. I think we'll see a lot of selling at 1020 that will take us down to 920-940 and resume this trend upwards. If you bought stocks on margin, it is a good time to reduce your positions and get out of the margin.

I am out of everything.

Everyone's Bullish

It's amazing how quickly the sentiment changes. Just few months ago, majority did not believe that this rally was for real. Now many are saying that the recession is over. I'm not sure about the recession but market has confirmed my view that the worst is behind us.

The current scenario is similar to late 2007/ early 2008 when everyone thought that the decline were just a pullback, now we are in the other extreme. Going forward we'll see sharp corrections and a new high. If you missed the earlier move don't worry, markets are going to be here tomorrow and there will be many opportunities for the patient person.

Core List

I looked at the performance of my recommendations vs. S&P to see how well or bad we performed. One of the list that I have suggested was up 18% vs. 11% for the S&P from July 10th to today.

The other list is up 45%, if you were to invest equal amounts in all these stocks.

Here are the symbols. It may have been too late to chase these stocks at these prices but next time when there is a correction, it may be a good idea to buy these.

The best way to do these is go get 10-20 people, form an investment club and invest $5,000 - $10,000 each and get the portfolio to $100,000 and put equal amount of money in these stocks.

If you are interested in the investment club...let me know.

Symbol
BIDU
CKSW
EXM
FEED
FUQI
GMCR
ISRG
JAZZ
JRCC
NOVN
OIS
PCLN
STEC
TRGT
TSRA
VICL
VIT
VPRT

Amazing Results

I got a call from a friend who bought three stocks from my recommended list. FUQI @ 17, STEC @ 24 and ISRG @ 142. All three stocks are doing very well and ISRG jumped 25% today. The best part of all this is that the scans that I run do work and my model still works.....

Thursday Update

The markets took over the resistance and if we manage to close above 950 in S&P, there is no need to take profits here. Hold tight...we are going to see 1020 soon.

Critical juncture

We are at a resitance and there is a chance to see a sell-off here that takes us back to 880. If your time horizon is long-term, there is no need to sell here but hold on to your stocks. If you are a short-to-medium trend trader, you might want to take some money in the next 2 days. I am holding my stocks here since I plan on holding those for a nice ride.

Here is a weekly chart of SPY and as you can see that we are just at the last high.

I'll add to my positions if we close above 950 in S&P.

Tuesday's Update

It seems the market has found the support here and we are heading towards 1000 in S&P. Intel came out with their earnings and they beat the estimate by 10c. The futures are already up big after the news...the main thing is if we can build on this tomorrow. I got out of SUNH...but holding PRGN and ATPG.

Thursday Update

880 is still looking strong as the market went below it but the buyers came and were able to close above 880.

I bought some ATPG, PRGN and SUNH at the close.

07/08/09

As you may have noticed that I have been unable to update this blog regularly due to other commitments. I was expecting 880 to hold and am still neutral until we close below 880 on a weekly chart. The break of 880 should bring in many sellers that could take us down to 800 (best case) and 600 (worst case).

It is almost impossible to figure out what the market will do on a day-to-day basis. Personally I feel that we have seen the bottom but I have been wrong many times. Here are few stocks that showed up on my scans. These stocks are selling at a significant discount while their revenue and ROE are still good. I consider these to be value stocks that should rebound very nicely if the market shows some strength, in addition to that these stocks are selling at less than their book value which provides a margin-of-safety.

FVE: $1.90
PRGN: $3.39
ATPG: $5.38
MTXX: $5.64
TBSI: $6.77
SUNH: $9.22

Tueday 6/23

We are getting close to 880. It is hard to say if we actually get to exact 880 but we are close enough. It is time to buy here. I'll look for any stocks from my earlier list and buy the ones that have declined the least.

Here are some of my picks.

Symbol
JAZZ
STEC
FEED
SWHC
BIDU
FUQI
GNK
TNDM
SYNA
HOTT
TSL
ARE
SOHU
VPRT
ISRG
OCLS
ARST
TSRA
GMR
PCLN
CNQR
CMED
PFCB
CVLT
CHLN
AWH
DECK
HTS
HME
AMSC
PNRA
EBS
CAVM
CMG
ATHN
TDG
TSCO
CCOI
MATK
OMI
EPR
CKSW
UA
AUXL
CAST

Update

I haven't had a chance to update this blog for a while. Been busy due to personal commitments.
It is probably a good idea to keep the stocks that I mentioned earlier in my post on your watch list and slowly buy the ones that are holding up well here. We could see 880 before we move higher. I have been daytrading from the long side only and the last 2 weeks were not good. I may have to wait till we get to 880 or close above 950.

Weekly Update

950 is proving to be a strong resistance but it makes me wonder how we are still holding up so well. If we manage to close above 950, it should go higher without stopping because there are lots of stops above 950. For the last 2 weeks we have basically stayed in the range of 920-950. In my opinion this is a bullish sign. I was expecting a sharp sell-off at least to 880 but the market does not want to go down. This is just a consolidation before the next move higher starts.

Some stocks to watch

Here are some of the stocks that showed up on my scan. What you want to do is determine the weekly support and weekly resistance for these and buy at support and sell at resistance. I will post the support and resistance when I have time to go through them.



Symbol
Company Name
Last Price
BPUR
Biopure Corp
0.31
OSCI
Oscient Pharmaceuticals Corp
0.38
EPEX
Edge Petroleum Corp
0.67
CYCC
Cyclacel Pharmaceuticals Inc
0.91
KERX
Keryx Biopharmaceuticals Inc
1.21
SYMX
Synthesis Energy Systems Inc
1.25
DVAX
Dynavax Technologies Corp
1.68
FREE
FreeSeas Inc
3.23
OCLS
Oculus Innovative Sciences Inc
4.79
SEED
Origin Agritech Ltd
5.69
FEED
AgFeed Industries Inc
7.32
EXM
Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd
9.96
CLDX
Celldex Therapeutics Inc
10.47
APWR
A Power Energy Generation Systems Ltd
13.3
BCSI
Blue Coat Systems Inc
16.55
FUQI
Fuqi International Inc
17.32
STEC
STEC Inc
19.63

Wednesday's Update

I'm still bullish here....although I do not hold any long positions. I'm day-trading futures from the long side only......The market is trying to find a direction. We are seeing a lot of selling around the 950 area but every sell-off is being bought. Unless we see a close near the low, I will not be too worried. As I had suggested earlier, it might be a good idea to sell some so that you are not using margin.....Margin should be used at support only and should be decreased as markets approach resistance.

Sold SMSI

I got out of SMSI.....it wasn't moving fast enough. It felt as if I was watching the paint dry.

Some Trading Wisdoms

Here are some good points that I received in an email today.....I do not know who wrote it but it is good and true.

1. Know that not every trade is profitable.Since the stock market can not be predicted, every trader needs to accept that they will be wrong some of the time. What separates good traders from the rest is their ability to throw in the towel when the market proves them wrong and take the loss.Doing this allows them to maintain their financial and emotional capital. Don't leave money in a loser that is more likely to continue to be a loser, it is too deflating and expensive.

2. Know what your tolerance for risk is.Traders who are able to make smart decisions can beat the market. However, the greatest hurdle to doing so is overcoming the emotional traps that cause traders to make bad decisions.The reason we succumb to our emotions is because we are afraid of losing. It is the risk we take that creates emotion; take too much risk and you are likely to make bad decisions.Therefore, you need to know what your limits are. What dollar amount of risk causes you anxiety? If you can not make a trade with out fear then you are taking too much risk. For some, that means never trading since they simply can not handle the risk of financial loss. However, over time and with success you will begin to build up your tolerance for risk, just take it one step at a time.

3. Know who is in control of the stock you are trading.Never ever buy a stock that is going down. Stocks in downward trends are controlled by the sellers and they will continue to go down until the sellers lose control. While it is tempting to get a deal on a stock, to try and buy it at bargain prices, the actual act of doing so is very challenging. The market is not always rational and the bottom is difficult to predict because we do not know what is motivating the sellers to act.Making money is simple. Buy stocks that are going up, short stocks that are going down. If the stock chart has rising bottoms, the buyers are in control. If the tops are falling, the sellers are in control.

4. Know who is in control of the overall market or sector.A big factor in a stock's performance is the performance of the overall market or the stock's sector. If the oil industry is strong, individual oil companies will be able to do better.Any trader who has a hold time frame beyond a few days should first consider the sector and focus their attention on the sectors that are outperforming the market. Strong stocks in weak sectors are not as likely to do well as a moderate stock in a strong sector.

5. Know the price point where the market proves you wrong.If we accept that we can not be right all of the time then we need to have a plan for what we will do when we are wrong. Arbitrary stop loss orders are not effective, they must be based on past opinions of the market.Remember that the stock market's job is to put a price on fundamentals. This is difficult since fundamentals are always changing but we do find that the market is good at putting upper and lower boundaries on the fundamentals over a period of time. The lower boundary of fundamental value shows up on a stock chart as a price floor while the upper boundary will be a high price point that acts as a ceiling. Breaks through these price ceilings are caused by a change in the perception of fundamental value. So too with price floors, if a stock closes below a well established price floor then we can guess that the market has found a fundamental reason to accept lower prices.So, when you buy a stock, understand where the price floor is. Look for well established low price points and plan to exit a buy if the stock closes below that low point. The reasoning is simple; if a stock closes below a psychological floor then it is likely that investor perception of company fundamentals has changed.

6. Know what the expected value of the trade is.Good traders do not fly by the seat of their pants. They develop a set of rules and then test those rules to determine the expected value of trades using that strategy.The expected value of a trading strategy is the probability of being right times the average profitability when you are right minus the probability of being wrong times the average loss when you are wrong. Using this equation you should see that success trading is not just about whether you are right or wrong but how much you make or lose when you are right or wrong.A trader can make a lot of money only being right 10% of the time if they capture very large gains when they are right and only small losses when they are wrong. In the same way, a trader can lose money even if they are right 80% of the time if they have big losses on individual trades.

7. Know that the media knows nothing of value.While there may be entertainment value in the media, using it as an information source is doomed for a couple of reasons.First, the media tends to react rather than predict. Trading the stock market well is far more lucrative than reporting on it so it should be difficult to trust the analysis provided by financial reporters.However, to be fair, there are some financial reporters who are able to uncover valuable information that could be lucrative if only you and a few friends knew about it. The reality is that the media is speaking to a large audience which means the information that they distribute will be priced in to the stock almost immediately.It may be interesting to hear some like CNBC's David Faber report on a merger of two companies but capturing the value of the trade around that transaction will be difficult because the market will move so fast once he announces his discovery. The market is efficient, making the media's voice merely entertainment.

8. Know that the market never lies.I have met so many liars in the stock market business over the past 20 years. I think that many of them actually believe what they are saying but, the truth is, people's judgment is clouded by greed.The stock market is a giant polling mechanism allowing people to cast their opinion with their money. If you think the stock market is going up, you buy. If you are right, you make money. It is a simple and powerful machine that determines value and, since no one wants to lose money, it is very efficient at telling the truth.The truth may change from one moment to the next but one thing will not change. Arguing against the market is a fast way to lose money.

9. Know the difference between pullbacks and reversals.The profit is in the patience. Very few stocks go up day after day after day; with all strong trends there are pull backs against the trend. These pull backs are important because they shake out weak hands and recharge buyer interest. So long as the pull back is not an indication of a change in the perception of fundamentals.Stocks do not go up forever; there will come a time when the trend must reverse as money moves out of the stock. Learning to know the difference between a pull back and a trend reversal is important if you want to maximize your overall profitability.Generally a reversal comes when a trend line or important area of support is broken. Allow for the short pullbacks so long as the primary trend remains intact.

10. Know yourself.If you do not know yourself you can not know success as a trader. Trading well is a matter of mastery over emotion. While very simple, trading is hard because our emotions get in the way and we succumb to fear and greed. If you know what motivates you and understand how you react to risk and reward you can begin to succeed as a trader.

Next week

I did not get a chance to look at the scan due to other commitments. I will not have any picks for this week.....

Friday's Update

Futures rallied in the morning after the employment numbers but sold off. Market did attempt to rally after the initial sell-off. USD had a nice rally and if this continues this will drive down the prices of gold and oil stocks. Gold stocks will take a bigger hit than oil stocks. At this point I recommend that people reduce their risks especially if you are buying stocks on margin.

I'm long SMSI which closed at $10.60 today and plan on holding those.

Out of all the stocks that I recommended last week ARQL, HEAT, EGO and GFI came down to the buy price. EGO and GFI sold off as all gold stocks. There is a small loss on HEAT and ARQL is doing great.

I will run the scan later this week and post the picks.

Non-Farm Payrolls

The job loss was less than expected although unemployment rate increased. We are getting close to 960 in SP futures which was my target. The main question is can we close above 960 today....if we do we could see 1040 otherwise we will likely retest 880.

Friday's Employment Numbers

Friday should be a huge day because of the employment numbers. I believe that no matter what type of numbers we get we should see a rally. If the numbers are bad we'll have a relief rally (about 1%) and if the numbers are good then about 3%.

Eight more hours till the markets are open.

The right time to buy

One of the questions that we all have is when is the right time to buy. Many times as soon as we buy the market starts going down and as soon as we sell the market starts going up. This happened to me with SNS today. I exited out of SNS at the very low of the day and I have bought few stocks at the very high tick too.

When the market is uptrending, it makes sense to buy at the previous 52-week high after it has made a new high. The previous 52-week high should have been made about 3 months ago.
If you look at the weekly chart of SMSI, it made a new 52-week high on the last week of Mayand closed above $8.5. The previous 52-week high was made in the 3rd week of September and was $8.5, so in this case the ideal time to buy is at $8.5.

SNS made a new high in the 3rd week of April and it closed above $10.5. The previosu high was $9.8 and was on the 3rd week of September. I should have waited for the price to come to $9.8 instead of buying at 10.4....I exited out of this position today because I was disappointed at myself for not following my own rules.

Sold SNS

I took a loss on SNS......I should have been more patient when I was buying.

Holding SMSI.

Sold RGR

Sold RGR at breakeven.....I think there are better opportunities than that.

Breakout Trades

Here are some stocks that are making new highs. I have the symbols and the buy-limit prices. Initial stops should be 20-30% below your buy price and when the stock moves in your favor and starts making new highs move the stop to 5% below your buy price. Use these stocks as a starting point and you can always add additional filters to narrow the list down.

DCTH---2.75
EGO --- 9.75
UVE---4.75
HEAT----7.50-7.75
GFI---13.50-13.75
KOPN----3.50
CATT----8.25
MYRG---18.25
SA----24.50
ANV---6.75
PAS---25
ARQL---4.75-5

There were 47 stocks that showed up on my list and many of those were Gold stocks. Please note that majority of these stocks are small caps and when they move they move fast which is like a double edged sword.

Another way to play this is with options especially for stocks that have decent daily volume > 1M. You can buy options 6-9 months out with the strike price that is closer to the buy price.
For example, you can buy Jan-10 15 calls at 1.85, so your risk is $185 on 1 contract (100 shares) and if the stock closes above 16.85 by Jan 10 you'll make money. Let's say that the stocks moves up from here then the option will gain value too and you can sell the option later on for a profit. If by October-November the stock does not move up or declines from the current price, you can still sell your option for some loss. This is just a directional play and there is more to options than this. No matter what happens you want to sell the option by November.

Here is a very good blog if you'd like to learn more about options.

http://blog.mdwoptions.com/options_for_rookies/

Update on RGR, SNS, SMSI

I'm moving my stops on these 3 stocks.

RGR: Close below 10
SNS: Close below 8
SMSI: Close below 7

Friday Update

As I have been telling anyone that listens to me to buy stocks. We are in a bull market and very few are believing. If you are bearish, this is how you could end up at the end.

Buy stocks but put a stop....just in case.

Back from vacation

The market has held up pretty well. 880 was re-tested and we bounced nicely from there. I'm expecting a big rally soon that could take us to 960. I'm still long SNS, SMSI and RGR. I have a tiny profit in SMSI and bigger losses in the other two. I'm still holding those here.

I had a chance to look over many charts and one of the things that I noticed is that many stocks when they make a new 52-week high usually re-test the previous high. For example, let's say a stock's previous 52 week high was $10 that happened 6 months ago and this week the stock closed at $12 making a new high. The stock usually goes down to $10 atleast 1 more time before it resumes it's move up. I had a chance to talk to few other traders and they have noticed this pattern too. If you look at SNS, it is right at its previous 52 week high.

Off to Vacation

Going on a vacation. Will be back on 30th. I won't be posting any picks this weekend.

Learning New Things Everyday

When I ran the scan I looked for stocks that had average volume > 200K. Now I am looking at all the stocks that showed up on my scan and the best performers have average volume > 400K.
JRCC, TSL and GTLS are the top 3 performers......Maybe I need to change my scan to include stocks over 400K in average volume.

Sold 1/4 of ES at 920....stop moved to 900 on 1/2. Even if I get stopped out the worst oucome is 100 points. If we get to 960 before 900, the profit will be 200 points.

Wednesday Morning

Futures are up in pre-market. I'm long SNS, SMSI and RGR. CMED never went past last week's high so I'm not buying that. I think we'll see 960-880-960-940-1020 in S&P before we enter the second part of the bull market.

Tuesday Morning

Bought RGR (8.99) and SMSI (12.01) as they are trading above last week's high. Will add more once it gets to the trigger price.

Monday Update

Markets rallied huge today. I was reading on another blog (can't remember the name) that the insurance on CDS has fallen significantly. This is good news for the market and I expect to see new highs soon. I bought SNS at 10.40. The other 3 stocks never got to my trigger price...hopefully it will soon. I'll be buying the first 3 that gets to the trigger price. I haven't traded stocks for a long time and hate to keep track of more than 3 at a time.

Buying SNS here.....Volume picked up during the day. Stop 25% from the trigger price and will evaluate it at the end of the week.

I'm taking SNS off the recommended list due to lack of volume.

I posted this in the Comments last night.

"Futures are down right now and broke the low from last week. If we see a continued sell-off overnight we could possibly see 760 before the rally resumes. It is too early to tell and we could see buyers come in later tonight".

Futures have bounced rather nicely.....let's see if this continues.

Indian markets were up 20% and had to be closed. An open, stable government in India will help many US companies as it makes it easier to do business there. My current target is 960 in S&P and will evaluate as new developments occur.

Stocks for the week of 5/18

Here are the stocks that have the potential to run up from here. You want to buy ONLY if the price gets to the trigger price. Stop is 25% from the trigger price and target is where you want to take the profits. This may take weeks or months to get to the target price but should not take longer than 3 months. If it does there is something wrong with it.

Most of my picks are geared towards weekend investors, people that have a regular job and are willing to take some risks to make some extra money. Only try this with money that you can afford to lose and HONOR YOUR STOPS.

S&P futures managed to close above 881. A close below 876 will change the current support to resistance. Nasdaq was relatively weaker in the first part of the week but has demonstrated some strength in the past two days. I'm still bullish until we close below 876 which will change my bias to neutral.

I find it easier to tell what the general market is going to do rather than what an individual stock is going to do. This may be the reason why I like to trade futures than stocks.

Here are some of the stocks that showed up on my scan. These are swing trades that are supposed to be held for weeks to months. I will post the trigger price, target and stops over the weekend. Till then you can start looking at the charts.

SMSI, ARST, CMED, ABG, SNS, CPF, SWIR, SPAR, BGFV, CLMS, MPWR, GTLS, FIRE
BOOM, DM, CRYP, APOG, HGG, BJRI, JRCC, RGR, TSL, NMM, TCBI

5/15

It is very important that we close above 881. If we close below 876 the next stop will be 800. Bears are trying their best but the buyers are coming at 881.

Market found support at 881 this morning and was up for most of the day. It closed right in between the high and low of the day. The buying did not look convincing but it was still an up day. Nasdaq showed some strength and that's what we need if the market is to go higher from here. Some of the blogs that I follow are bearish and I hate to be on the other side of those guys but I need to follow my own system.

One of the stocks that I had initially recommended was MED but took it off my list due to lack of volume...and today the stock skyrocketted.....In hindsight the volume wasn't too bad. I expect S&P to be in the 880-960 range for the next few months.

I still do not think that we are going much lower (I know we all have different opinions and that's what makes the market). 881 on ES was tested 4 times and the bears could not break it, so I think that we will see 960 soon. I would not be surprised if we see S&P in the 880-960 range for the next few months. If we close below 880, the next support is 800 and 760. If you look at the daily chart of SP, it has bounced everytime since breaking the 4 day low. We broke the 4 day low today so I'm expecting an up day tomorrow.

The chart shows what happened in the past after SP broke the 4 day low. The only difference now is that Nasdaq is weaker than it was in the past.

S&P is down the last two days and many people think that we have seen an intermediate top. I still believe that we'll see 1000 before 800. Nasdaq has been relatively weaker the past few days but S&P has been holding up well. Nasdaq rallied 30%+ from the low and S&P rallied 25%+ from the low. This sell-off is limited to Nasdaq and once it finds support we should go higher. We need to see more than one true selling day for the trend to reverse.

I'm still buying break-outs here.

There are 3 stages of a bull-market.

We are currently in Stage 1, this is the stage where there are many doubters but the market keeps roaring ahead. Even though the fundamentals look bad and we have hundred reasons why the market should not go up, it goes up. It is not good to fight this trend. The ideal strategy is to buy break-outs because there many not be pullbacks to buy.

The second stage is where the majority are on board. We see sharp retracements during this stage and failed break-outs. The ideal way to trade is to buy on pullbacks. I usually like to buy the pullback to the 65 W MA in the S&P. For some reason the 65 W MA provides serious support.

Stage 3 is similar to Stage 1 when everyone is a bull. Everyone starts talking about the market and how they are making a killing. This is the time to start taking profits and tightening the stops.

Here is the model that I developed. The blue line has rallied 10% from the low, this indicates that we are in a new bull market. Currently the best strategy is to go long stocks. We may see some pullbacks along the way but it seems the worst is over.