I have been unable to post the past month because of personal issues. We are trying to move from the midwest to CA to be closer to family and enjoy the nice weather. I find it very hard to find time to dedicate to this blog, so I am not going to update this in the near future. I may still post at Kurakani. In the future if I find time I will post here.
Good Luck.
Friday, January 29, 2010
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Thursday, December 24, 2009
Blast from the Past
I was looking at some of the things that I have written in the past and I found this post from 6/27/07. I sort of saw the crash coming in 08. Yeah, I admit that I'm blowing my own horn.....
"I would not touch Blackstone here. It is trading below it's IPO price now, so is Fortress that went public recently. In some weird way it might have signaled a top.
We are still in a major bull market so this market will go higher, but it pays to be patience and buy on a pullbacks rather than chase everything that is moving.
Another thing that I noticed is that the Commercials are net long, so if the market goes down here it will go down more than the previous reactions. In previous reactions, the market has been down mostly 6-8%, so my guess is about 13-15% from the high, we are already down about 3% from the time I suggested the market was going down.
If the market rebounds here and keeps on going up, we might see a crash like in 87. Before the crash in 87, the bonds were sinking, commercials were net long and investor sentiment was very high. I'd rather see a nice pullback now than a crash later. "
"I would not touch Blackstone here. It is trading below it's IPO price now, so is Fortress that went public recently. In some weird way it might have signaled a top.
We are still in a major bull market so this market will go higher, but it pays to be patience and buy on a pullbacks rather than chase everything that is moving.
Another thing that I noticed is that the Commercials are net long, so if the market goes down here it will go down more than the previous reactions. In previous reactions, the market has been down mostly 6-8%, so my guess is about 13-15% from the high, we are already down about 3% from the time I suggested the market was going down.
If the market rebounds here and keeps on going up, we might see a crash like in 87. Before the crash in 87, the bonds were sinking, commercials were net long and investor sentiment was very high. I'd rather see a nice pullback now than a crash later. "
2009 Review
2009 ended up being pretty good. The first few months I was on the sideline and did not do much but I turned bullish in April and the timing was great. Everyone that I knew was bearish then and were sure that the world was coming to an end. When I turned bullish and told people to buy in April, there were 2 people that bought it but others were too scared. The best thing about this is that the model that I built was accurate in calling the top (in late 2007) and the bottom.
As I had mentioned earlier on one of my post that I am trying to start a business in Nepal. I have been fairly busy with that in the past 2 months and will be busy with that in the future too. I love trading but due to the new business I had to take money from my trading account and put it in savings because I need the money in the next few months as we move forward with this business. So this past month I just left enough money to trade small and took the rest out. I made 35.61% in December.
I have had few requests from people about trading their account too. In the past I did not want to go through the hassel but now the more I think about it I realize that this may work. This is a great way for me to make some extra money without risking a lot of my own money. There is going to be a charge for it, but if anyone is interested shoot me an email and we can discuss in detail.
Here is my Dec's results.
As I had mentioned earlier on one of my post that I am trying to start a business in Nepal. I have been fairly busy with that in the past 2 months and will be busy with that in the future too. I love trading but due to the new business I had to take money from my trading account and put it in savings because I need the money in the next few months as we move forward with this business. So this past month I just left enough money to trade small and took the rest out. I made 35.61% in December.
I have had few requests from people about trading their account too. In the past I did not want to go through the hassel but now the more I think about it I realize that this may work. This is a great way for me to make some extra money without risking a lot of my own money. There is going to be a charge for it, but if anyone is interested shoot me an email and we can discuss in detail.
Here is my Dec's results.
Friday, December 18, 2009
Trying to Breakout
As I had mentioned in my earlier post this market is trying to break-out to the upside. There was a decent selling yesterday but the buyers came in again. We saw the same thing today. ES made an intraday low during the regular hours but closed near the high. My other indicator has already broke-out to the upside, so I'd expect this move to continue higher.
December, so far has been the best month for me this year.
December, so far has been the best month for me this year.
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
Meet up
As I mentioned to in my earlier post that I have been busy with other stuff and am unable to update this blog on a regular basis. I'm still trading futures intraday from the long side only and it has been going good.
Although I was expecting the market to correct 6-8%, this market has been showing some serious strength. Just a few % move down brings lots of buyers. We will probably see 1200 before any serious correction.
Just wanted to know if anyone here trades intraday? I'm assuming most of the people are swing traders. I have been thinking about meeting with some of you at ANA or something like that. Would you guys be interested? We can grab few beers and talk about markets?
Although I was expecting the market to correct 6-8%, this market has been showing some serious strength. Just a few % move down brings lots of buyers. We will probably see 1200 before any serious correction.
Just wanted to know if anyone here trades intraday? I'm assuming most of the people are swing traders. I have been thinking about meeting with some of you at ANA or something like that. Would you guys be interested? We can grab few beers and talk about markets?
Friday, November 13, 2009
11/12
I have been back for a while but have been really busy to update this blog. In addition to that MSN screener that I used to scan for stocks is no longer available. Currently, I am looking at few other businesses to start in Nepal and am busy working on the business plans.
Here is a simple strategy that should beat the market. We are in a bull market now and the best bet is to buy pullbacks. Wait for the S&P 500 to touch the 65W EMA and buy one of the indexes (SPY, DIA, QQQQ, IWM) using margin. Once S&P goes up by 80 points, sell some so that you are not using margin and hold the rest. Then you wait for another pullback. Your stop is 6% below your buy price.
Currently, S&P 65W EMA is at 1020.
Here is a simple strategy that should beat the market. We are in a bull market now and the best bet is to buy pullbacks. Wait for the S&P 500 to touch the 65W EMA and buy one of the indexes (SPY, DIA, QQQQ, IWM) using margin. Once S&P goes up by 80 points, sell some so that you are not using margin and hold the rest. Then you wait for another pullback. Your stop is 6% below your buy price.
Currently, S&P 65W EMA is at 1020.
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