I was looking at some of the things that I have written in the past and I found this post from 6/27/07. I sort of saw the crash coming in 08. Yeah, I admit that I'm blowing my own horn.....
"I would not touch Blackstone here. It is trading below it's IPO price now, so is Fortress that went public recently. In some weird way it might have signaled a top.
We are still in a major bull market so this market will go higher, but it pays to be patience and buy on a pullbacks rather than chase everything that is moving.
Another thing that I noticed is that the Commercials are net long, so if the market goes down here it will go down more than the previous reactions. In previous reactions, the market has been down mostly 6-8%, so my guess is about 13-15% from the high, we are already down about 3% from the time I suggested the market was going down.
If the market rebounds here and keeps on going up, we might see a crash like in 87. Before the crash in 87, the bonds were sinking, commercials were net long and investor sentiment was very high. I'd rather see a nice pullback now than a crash later. "
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8 comments:
Nepali trader,
There is no doubt that u have been great calling the tops and bottoms. I have been reading u from almost 3 years and admire yr knowledge and skill a lot.
I remember u calliing 400+ down day on DOW in late FEB 2007 too. The call u have made for crude oil last summer was great too.
As u have reminded yr past posts, it came to mind, it would be great, if we can have yr past postings from sajha here in some way. May not be all of 'em, but those which still makes sense. Personally, i still go to those sajha posts and try to learn. If u think, its a good idea, i am free these days and ready to help u.
Thank u.
Haha Dipesh....I find it flattering and scary at the same time that you remember more than I do. Now since you mentioned it I remember the 400 point drop, I think it was on Feb 27th and I was short going into that. If there are posts that you think would be helpful compile those and email me. I occasionally read the stuff that I had posted in the past to see where I was wrong and where I was right.
Nepali Trader,
sure, i will do that as it is something i have always wanted to do. Thank u for the oppotunity.
Thanks TNB,
I started this blog to help other Nepalese regarding stocks. If there are ways to make it better, please let me know. I always give my contact information to people that give me their contact information as long as they are from Nepal.
i have been following your post from sajha since 2005 actually. i was first about to start in 2006 and i remember u saying to not invest that year because u thought market could see huge correction.
so i am still glad for that.
and since u asked i remember u made one wrong call.. but to be fair a lot of people including VectorVest got it wrong in Sep 2008 when there were rumours of bailout bill going to be introduced and the markets corrected huge to the upside and that was intepreted to be bullish.
the reason i remember that one is because i loaded up on Call options and later had to sell them at 50% or 70% losses.. and actually thank god i sold them because as people started Selling on the news after the bill was passed.
made that money back later in october but learnt a valuable lesson in options.
i will send u some details on blogging sometime over the weekend. at work right now and bit busy.
TNB,
I remember the time in Sept 08, when you were long and lost a lot. Although my model had suggested a decline in the future, the market was holding up well and was above the 65 WMA. I thought that we were going to hold 1400, but it did not happen. I lost quiet a bit too during that sell-off. That's why I use stops. I have been wrong many times but usually manage to get out with a small loss. It is important to manage risk properly so that we can live to play another day.
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